A lot of you disagree with me on my Flash assessment and your comments have been great. Unfortunately, I really do need to get back to my vacation. Do please feel free to keep knocking down my arguments in the comments, though.
I want to leave with this definition that I tweeted a minute ago, because this is the crux of my point in the last point. I'm really not hoping Flash dies, but I do fear for the hammer developers in the Flash world because there's at least some chance of the platform becoming obsolete. We can argue all night about how great those chances are, but given the current environment, the chance is at very least greater than zero.
A "hammer developer" is a developer who has only ever learned one language and development framework. With only one tool in their box, every problem looks like a nail. It's the hammer developer that's responsible for sites like Disney's, where even basic things that HTML has been able to handle for years (like navigation bars) are done in Flash.
Hammer developers are the ones who have the hardest time when a technology does become obsolete. Even if you love Flash, don't be a hammer developer. Seriously. Diversify your toolset, even if you love one particular one. No toolset is guaranteed to be around forever.
And, yes, hammer developers exist in every developer community. I'm only singling the Flash community out because the platform sits in a unique position at this point in time. Flash has a lot of baggage from a different era and I'm not sure Adobe really understands what must be done for Flash to remain viable. Maybe they do, but are you willing to bet your income on it?